Counter-Factual Thinking

I was very strongly indoctrinated in the value and importance of fact-based management. That thinking was so part of the culture of the early years of my career. Even explanations or proposals that wandered into speculations or conjecture were pulled back on track with interjections like, "just the facts please" or "just stick to the facts".

Later in my career as I became the-man-in-charge with the accountability to profitably grow the business I began to see relying solely on the facts for decision-making pretty much meant we were consigned to stay inside the current thinking or paradigm. If facts didn't support a particular course then it was speculative. We were unwittingly operating in an incremental improvement model, and extension of the past model, more of what we knew to do - but better. That's all that facts could justify.

So we decided to augment fact-based management with counter-factual thinking and decision-making. Thinking and decision-making that was driven by vision, intention, the future, our aspiration - all expressed as a desired future that could not be validated by any supporting facts, or forecasts.

As we made out decisions and engaged in the actions that were needed to realize the outcomes the decisions were intended to bring about, we were clear that one of two possibilities would emerge:
We would fail. We would realize that what we intended was not going to happen. If we did not forget the possibility of failing we would catch ourselves early on and either change course or abandon this particular line of explorations. If we forgot that failure was a high probability we missed early warning signals and the cost of eventual failure was much higher - and usually more embarrassing.
The second possibility - the one we intended, wanted even - was a breakthrough, a new discovery, a new and exciting set of outcomes that we could not have achieved by sticking to what was predictable.
So a possibility I encourage managers to work inside of is the possibility of failing. Flirt with that possibility. Know all the signs and signals and what the emotional experience of failing is.
Some failure is inevitable unless you live so cautiously as to be of no value as a leader or manager. Much as a rock climber would know the signs and signals of missteps - not to be deterred but to be more aware.